Tuesday, July 01, 2003
TO CLOSE OR NOT TO CLOSE
Lot's of talk surrounding the closer position these days. Ever since Lyon blew his first Save Saturday night. It's time for my thoughts on this shiat. Now, there is news that BH Kim is moving to the pen to be the closer. And when Mendoza returns, he could be moved into the rotation. What shocks me is that RS Nation isn't exploding in rage about this move? Mendoza a starter? What's worse, it looks like he could make his 1st start against the first place Y*nkees! WOW! I wouldn't mind seeing Mendoza as a starter against teams like Tampa or even Baltimore, but to throw him into the Bronx after striking out high school and college kids? C'mon!
First of all. Why do the Sox need a closer? We have the offense to crush the bad teams. And Lyon has gone 9 for 10 in Save Opportunities. That is as good as a percentage as you're gonna get, folks. Smoltz, and Gagne have 92% and 95%, respectively. Now, 10 Opportunities is a very small sample, but that's all we have. Some may say that Lyon hasn't made any clutch Saves, but how many clutch Saves does a closer make in a year? I'd say the number varies from 5 to 10. So guys like Nenn, Hoffman, and Rivera get millions of dollars to come in for 50-60 innings a year and maybe 10 of those are so-called "clutch" innings. They blow 15% of their saves but are still considered "dependable" or "clutch." Beyond Gagne and Smoltz, and the Rivera of years past, I'd say that all closers are overrated and not all that good.
I'd also say that Lyon can close as well as BH Kim. But, BH Kim can start much better than Lyon. But which is more important? Is Kim's 6-9 innings of starting more important than his inning of closing? We've got half of the season left so are Kim's 30 innings as a closer as hlepful to the team as 100 as a starter? The math is simple. People may say that those 30 innings are the toughest innings to pitch. I disagree. I think every inning is equally tough until the score is determined. An Inning Pitched with a tied game or a one run lead or a one run deficit is probably the toughest inning. However, closers rarely come in when the team is tied or behind. And how many more times from innings 1-8 is the game a tied game or is the game a one-run game? Let's say these zero to one run innings come about every one out of three innings. That would mean Kim would be pitching in 33 "tough" innings as a starter and 10 as a closer. Which is a greater contribution to the team?
I asked my friend Ben to come up with some arguments for Kim being the closer. Here's what he came up with:
"we don't have anything to trade for another closer and if we did it wouldn't be worth it cause Kim is fine, Lyon is unproven as a closer up until this season and didn't look to great over the weekend"
We cna trade for Benitez, who I don't want, or Tom Gordon with ease. Gordon is a proven closer and would cost us very little in terms of prospects and added salary. It's true Lyon had a Blown Save and struggled at first Sunday evening, but Kim has given up some pretty big homeruns in big situations. Remember the 2001 World Series. Kim didn't exactly prove to be all that dependable or clutch, did he?
"Fossum has no place on this list anyways, I don't know why he should even be considered for the job"
Why should Fossum be considered a potential closer? He's got two pitches, and hitters have an easy time hitting him each time he pitches through the lineup. Perfect closer material.
"the closer pitches 4 or 5 days of the week as opposed to 1 or 2 like the starter"
That would equate to 131 appearances. That's way more than any closer puts up today. Most closers pitch half that many times. And most of those times are with a 3 or 2 run lead or against shitty teams. The question isn't how many appearances a closer makes compared to a starter, it's the innings. It's simple math. Starters pitch thrice as many innings as closers.
"each of those innings he pitches are the toughest innings of the game, which is why you need someone dependable and reliable to come in and close it down in the 9th"
That's bullshit. It can be the toughest inning to pitch, but so can any other inning. Look at the 1st inning of Friday night's game. In one inning the game was over.
"Kim over his career with the D'backs has proven he can be that guy"
78% career save percentage. That means one in every eight Save Opps. is a Blown Save.
"and if you don't think the closer is important than look at how many games the Sox have lost over the last week as a result of having a shitty bullpen"
A shitty bullpen is one thing. That's seven different guys. If Kim were to be an old-school 3 inning closer, then the move would make sense, but I don't see how putting Mendoza in the rotation solves thist team's problems. The Sox are looking to do something and can't do it on the trade market.
"having a dependable closer at the end would give us timlin Lyon and Embree as setup guys"
I agree with that, but SPs are more important than RPs. Always have been, always will be.
"name me the last team you can remember that made the WS without a legitamate closer"
Name the last team to win the WS with guys like Burkett and Mendoza in the rotation.
"and we have starters who can fill in for Kim without losing many quality starts"
Ryan Rupe? Ramiro Mendoza? John Burkett? Casey Fossum? YUCK!
Peter Gammons' First half review. Included in this are his picks for the All-Star Game. Peter! Posada starting? No Bill Mueller? Anyhow, here's my ASG ballot:
AL
C-Varitek
1B-Millar
2B-Bret Boone (SEA)
3B-Bill Mueller
SS-Nomar
OF-Manny, Rocco Baldelli (TB), Vernon Wells (TOR)
DH-David Ortiz
NL
C-Mike Lieberthal (PHI)
1B-Richie Sexson (MIL)
2B-Jeff Kent (HOU)
3B-Mike Lowell (FLA)
SS-Edgar Renteria (StL)
OF-Albert Pujols (StL), Barry Bonds (SFG), Vlad Guerrero (MON)
Y*nkees won, Jays lost, A's lost.
Another former Soxer nearly threw a no-no. Jamie Moyer went 6 2/3 before relenting a hit.
Post #39
Lot's of talk surrounding the closer position these days. Ever since Lyon blew his first Save Saturday night. It's time for my thoughts on this shiat. Now, there is news that BH Kim is moving to the pen to be the closer. And when Mendoza returns, he could be moved into the rotation. What shocks me is that RS Nation isn't exploding in rage about this move? Mendoza a starter? What's worse, it looks like he could make his 1st start against the first place Y*nkees! WOW! I wouldn't mind seeing Mendoza as a starter against teams like Tampa or even Baltimore, but to throw him into the Bronx after striking out high school and college kids? C'mon!
First of all. Why do the Sox need a closer? We have the offense to crush the bad teams. And Lyon has gone 9 for 10 in Save Opportunities. That is as good as a percentage as you're gonna get, folks. Smoltz, and Gagne have 92% and 95%, respectively. Now, 10 Opportunities is a very small sample, but that's all we have. Some may say that Lyon hasn't made any clutch Saves, but how many clutch Saves does a closer make in a year? I'd say the number varies from 5 to 10. So guys like Nenn, Hoffman, and Rivera get millions of dollars to come in for 50-60 innings a year and maybe 10 of those are so-called "clutch" innings. They blow 15% of their saves but are still considered "dependable" or "clutch." Beyond Gagne and Smoltz, and the Rivera of years past, I'd say that all closers are overrated and not all that good.
I'd also say that Lyon can close as well as BH Kim. But, BH Kim can start much better than Lyon. But which is more important? Is Kim's 6-9 innings of starting more important than his inning of closing? We've got half of the season left so are Kim's 30 innings as a closer as hlepful to the team as 100 as a starter? The math is simple. People may say that those 30 innings are the toughest innings to pitch. I disagree. I think every inning is equally tough until the score is determined. An Inning Pitched with a tied game or a one run lead or a one run deficit is probably the toughest inning. However, closers rarely come in when the team is tied or behind. And how many more times from innings 1-8 is the game a tied game or is the game a one-run game? Let's say these zero to one run innings come about every one out of three innings. That would mean Kim would be pitching in 33 "tough" innings as a starter and 10 as a closer. Which is a greater contribution to the team?
I asked my friend Ben to come up with some arguments for Kim being the closer. Here's what he came up with:
"we don't have anything to trade for another closer and if we did it wouldn't be worth it cause Kim is fine, Lyon is unproven as a closer up until this season and didn't look to great over the weekend"
We cna trade for Benitez, who I don't want, or Tom Gordon with ease. Gordon is a proven closer and would cost us very little in terms of prospects and added salary. It's true Lyon had a Blown Save and struggled at first Sunday evening, but Kim has given up some pretty big homeruns in big situations. Remember the 2001 World Series. Kim didn't exactly prove to be all that dependable or clutch, did he?
"Fossum has no place on this list anyways, I don't know why he should even be considered for the job"
Why should Fossum be considered a potential closer? He's got two pitches, and hitters have an easy time hitting him each time he pitches through the lineup. Perfect closer material.
"the closer pitches 4 or 5 days of the week as opposed to 1 or 2 like the starter"
That would equate to 131 appearances. That's way more than any closer puts up today. Most closers pitch half that many times. And most of those times are with a 3 or 2 run lead or against shitty teams. The question isn't how many appearances a closer makes compared to a starter, it's the innings. It's simple math. Starters pitch thrice as many innings as closers.
"each of those innings he pitches are the toughest innings of the game, which is why you need someone dependable and reliable to come in and close it down in the 9th"
That's bullshit. It can be the toughest inning to pitch, but so can any other inning. Look at the 1st inning of Friday night's game. In one inning the game was over.
"Kim over his career with the D'backs has proven he can be that guy"
78% career save percentage. That means one in every eight Save Opps. is a Blown Save.
"and if you don't think the closer is important than look at how many games the Sox have lost over the last week as a result of having a shitty bullpen"
A shitty bullpen is one thing. That's seven different guys. If Kim were to be an old-school 3 inning closer, then the move would make sense, but I don't see how putting Mendoza in the rotation solves thist team's problems. The Sox are looking to do something and can't do it on the trade market.
"having a dependable closer at the end would give us timlin Lyon and Embree as setup guys"
I agree with that, but SPs are more important than RPs. Always have been, always will be.
"name me the last team you can remember that made the WS without a legitamate closer"
Name the last team to win the WS with guys like Burkett and Mendoza in the rotation.
"and we have starters who can fill in for Kim without losing many quality starts"
Ryan Rupe? Ramiro Mendoza? John Burkett? Casey Fossum? YUCK!
Peter Gammons' First half review. Included in this are his picks for the All-Star Game. Peter! Posada starting? No Bill Mueller? Anyhow, here's my ASG ballot:
AL
C-Varitek
1B-Millar
2B-Bret Boone (SEA)
3B-Bill Mueller
SS-Nomar
OF-Manny, Rocco Baldelli (TB), Vernon Wells (TOR)
DH-David Ortiz
NL
C-Mike Lieberthal (PHI)
1B-Richie Sexson (MIL)
2B-Jeff Kent (HOU)
3B-Mike Lowell (FLA)
SS-Edgar Renteria (StL)
OF-Albert Pujols (StL), Barry Bonds (SFG), Vlad Guerrero (MON)
Y*nkees won, Jays lost, A's lost.
Another former Soxer nearly threw a no-no. Jamie Moyer went 6 2/3 before relenting a hit.
Post #39
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